Fun with Stats

A few days ago, I came across the Club Form Guide on the EPL website. After getting over the shock of just how badly West Brom have been doing recently, it gave me an idea. I like playing with various metrics to come up with ultimately pointless statistics about what the league table will look like at the end of season, normally concerned with who will get relegated, or what teams have to do to avoid being relegated.

For example, if you extrapolate the number of points needed on a given date to finish outside of relegation (regardless of which teams are in the relegation zone), after the first couple of games have been played the graph remains remarkably straight – you could reasonably predict that the the team in 18th place will get 32-34 points at the end of the season. Last season, this almost worked – but in the last few matches the bottom teams had a point spurt – presumably as the realisation of relegation kicked in.

Relegation

With the club form data, I had an idea – why not extrapolate the current forms of each clubs until the end of the season and see what the league table would end up looking like? Simply put, I assume that the form of the last 6 games will remain constant for the remaining 13 games, and add the points on to the current league positions.

TEAM
Current Points
Points in last 6 Games
Predicted Points
Man Utd621697
Man City531483
Tottenham451271
Chelsea46863
Everton42962
Liverpool361160
Arsenal41858
Swansea34954
Reading231351
West Ham30745
Sunderland29744
Fulham28743
Newcastle27742
Southampton24739
West Brom34136
Norwich28335
Stoke30234
Wigan21634
QPR17732
Aston Villa21328

Using either metric, it looks that, even given West Brom’s current bad form, they are *just* safe from relegation!

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